The projections come as California enters its ninth consecutive year of declining public K-12 enrollment. Statewide enrollment fell by about 75,000 students for the 2025-26 school year to 5.73 million. Designed by Magnific

COLUSA, CA (MPG) – The California Department of Education (CDE) announced Public school enrollment trends across the Sacramento Valley are expected to move in different directions over the next decade, with Sutter County projected to add nearly 2,900 students while Colusa, Glenn and Butte counties face continued declines.

The projections come as California enters its ninth consecutive year of declining public K-12 enrollment. Statewide enrollment fell by about 75,000 students for the 2025-26 school year to 5.73 million.

If current fertility and migration trends continue, statewide enrollment is projected to fall another 710,500 students over the next decade, reaching about 5.02 million by 2035-36.

Colusa County had an estimated 4,543 students enrolled in transitional kindergarten through 12th grade during the 2025-26 school year, ranking 47th among California's 58 counties. Enrollment declined by 70 students from the previous school year.

The California Department of Education data projects Colusa County will lose another 91 students in 2026-27. By 2035-36, enrollment is projected to decline by 469 students from the 2025-26 level, leaving the county with about 4,074 students if the projection holds.

Colusa was among 22 California counties where enrollment declined by more than 1% between 2024-25 and 2025-26 according to the CDE.

Butte County, ranked 29th statewide, enrolled an estimated 29,937 students in 2025-26, an increase of about 200 students from the previous year. The change placed Butte among 31 counties where enrollment remained within 1% of the previous year's level.

That growth is not expected to continue. Butte County is projected to lose 15 students in 2026-27 and 593 students between 2025-26 and 2035-36.

Sutter County stands apart from most of the region.

The county had an estimated 26,222 students in 2025-26, ranking 34th statewide and gaining about 800 students from the previous school year. Sutter was one of five counties where enrollment increased by more than 1%.

The state projects another 421 students will enroll in Sutter County schools in 2026-27. Over the 10-year projection period, enrollment is expected to increase by 2,895 students, bringing the county to about 29,117 students by 2035-36.

Sutter County also leads the state in projected high school graduate growth. It is expected to produce 331 more graduates by the end of the projection period, the largest increase among California counties.

Yuba County's enrollment is expected to remain relatively stable. The county had an estimated 16,135 students in 2025-26, ranking 37th statewide and increasing by about 58 students from the previous year.

Yuba County is projected to gain another 76 students in 2026-27. By 2035-36, enrollment is projected to be just 61 students higher than its 2025-26 level.

Glenn County, ranked 43rd statewide, enrolled an estimated 6,671 students in 2025-26, an increase of about 82 students. That increase placed Glenn among the five counties with enrollment growth greater than 1%.

The trend is expected to reverse. Glenn County is projected to lose 81 students in 2026-27 and 583 students by 2035-36, compared with its 2025-26 enrollment.

Across California, only six counties are projected to have higher public-school enrollment in 2035-36 than they did in 2025-26. Placer County is expected to record the largest increase, gaining 6,700 students. Los Angeles County is projected to experience the largest decline, losing 240,800 students.

High school graduates are also expected to decline statewide. California recorded about 453,600 graduates in 2024-25. That number is projected to fall to 424,800 in 2026-27, remain near that level through 2029-30 and decline to 381,300 by 2035-36.

The projections use enrollment information from the California Department of Education, birth data from the California Department of Public Health and projected births from the state's Demographic Research Unit.

Additional information and county projections are available at https://arcg.is/0mWKvj0.